An interesting and inspiring online “leader article” by John Robinson, editor of the News and Record sets out to explain how the traditional newspaper is going to use its websites to expand citizen journalism. It sets out very clearly what it believes local newspapers will need to do to continue to be relevant in a Web 2.0 world. There are clearly lessons here for all publishers…
New Year’s Wishes
A few things I would like to see in 2006:
- Longer life batteries for laptops – 10 hours would be useful
- Large -size flash memory – say 40GB
- Gadget makers standardise on one data connection and one power supply – it drives me crazy that my house is so full of adapters and cables
Afterthought…
Kurzweil predicts, on current trajectories, that $1,000 will buy you a PC with as much processing power as a human brain by 2020. Given that kind of time frame, anything goes!
Linear vs. exponential growth
Two of my recent posts have talked about the prospects for online advertising revenue in 2006. The first suggested that 2006 could prove to be the ““tipping point” for online advertising. The second suggested that there could be a substantial rise in absolute terms in the coming year.
I have a strong feeling that traditional publishers are not factoring this possibility into their thinking; I saw an internal projection the other day from a senior advertising working party in which they were predicting that the total amount of online advertising would overtake conventional print advertising by, I think, 2014!
The basis of this assumption is a linear interpretation of current (internal) trends. This could prove to be badly wrong.
I’ve just finished reading Ray Kurzweil’s book The Singularity is Near and he makes a strong point about the dangers of applying a linear view if, in fact, we are looking at something with exponential characteristics.
Given the notorious difficulty of forecasting this market (Veronis Suhler forecast a market of $9.9bn in the US by 2005; Forrester have just put the figure at $14.7bn) an open mind is probably required.
If we are, indeed, at the tipping point or the “knee of the curve” as he calls it, our future planning assumptions could be dangerously out of kilter with reality.
At the very least, we should have a couple of alternative views of the future…
Online ads to rise in 2006
According to a report by Bloomberg.com online advertising is set to rise by 32% next year.
One newsroom, two newsrooms, or none?
Jeff Jarvis again, but this time on whether news desks for print and online should be separate or combined. He favours combined, perhaps surprisingly.
Is Print Doomed?
The Digg society
BuzzMachine has an interesting take on “the Digg society”, an ecosystem which has formed around www.digg.com, a collaborative news site.
The Beauty of Simplicity
Fast Company says keep it simple.
Google: Ten Golden Rules
Google: Ten Golden Rules as told to Newsweek by CEO Eric Schmidt.